The Money Tree

Safely Generating Income in Retirement

VISIONS Scan

Posted by mounddweller on June 20, 2010

I ran a VISIONS scan this weekend.  For the first time in quite a while it returned more than just one or two possible trades.  In fact VISIONS identified 14 possible trades, 5 of which have a Gold$ score of greater than 80. 

(1) First Solar (FSLR) – Gold$ = 92

(2) Banco Santander (STD) – Gold$ = 90

(3) Logitech International (LOGI) – Gold$ = 86

(4) ExxonMobil (XOM) – Gold$ = 84

(5) Forest Labs (FRX) – Gold$ = 82

What I found particularly interesting in the results of my scan are the increasing number of ‘blue chip’  stocks that are beginning to appear.  The most notable of these is of course ExxonMobil which showed up in the top 5.  Others, in no particular order, appearing further down the list beyond the top 14 I referenced above include JNJ, MSFT, KO, VISA, and GOOG. 

I believe we are still in a bear market thus I want to limit my trades to those types of large-cap companies.  I say keep an eye on them and pounce when the timing is right. 

Regards,

Troy

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3 Responses to “VISIONS Scan”

  1. dealmakr said

    Hi Troy,

    Here is a list of my open positions week ending 06/25/10

    Market will be looking at earnings season soon arriving after July 4th holiday. Unemployment numbers out also this week.

    Short 50 AKS Jul 12 Put .20
    Short 30 BAX Nov 37.5 Put avg 1.02
    Short 50 BRCD Jul 5 Put .05
    Short 25 BRCD Aug 6 Call .15 (covered call)
    Short 100 BRCD Oct 6 Put avg .84
    Short 40 CLDX Jul 5 Put avg .60
    Short 25 CLDX Aug 2.5 Put .10 corrected month
    Short 50 CLDX Aug 5 Put avg .72
    Short 75 CLDX Aug 7.5 Call avg .23 (covered call)
    Short 25 CLDX Aug 10 Call .10 (covered call)
    Short 20 CLF Oct 25 Put .60
    Short 25 DELL Jul 12 Put .22
    Short 90 DELL Nov 10 Put avg .42
    Short 25 DELL Jan 7.5 Put .20
    Short 85 GE Sep 12 Put avg .23
    Short 25 GE Dec 7.5 Put .16
    Short 25 GE Jan 7.5 Put .27
    Short 20 GXDX Jul 15 Put .40
    Short 25 GXDX Aug 15 Put .70
    Short 50 INTC Jan 12.5 Put .335 avg
    Short 50 MAC Jul 45 Call .40
    Short 20 ONB Jul 10 Put .20
    Short 50 SMOD Jul 5 Put .05
    Short 50 SMOD Aug 5 Put .20
    Short 25 SPWRA Dec 5 Put .17

    Market still not acting well and positions can be adjusted at any time.

    Example DELL 12 puts were originally sold 06/04/10 @.25 and rebot on 06/21/10 @.06. A small profit taken with DELL gaining strength before analyst meeting, but by closing position early and not awaiting expiration, the position was reopened again @.22 for another round. You don’t have to wait for the last .05 on every trade or an expiration bingo on every stock.

    Opening position WFR updated 06/25/10

    05/03/10 Bot 2500 WFR 13.19
    05/03/10 Sold 25 May 13 Call .73 corrected
    05/03/10 Sold 25 May 12 Put .23
    05/03/10 Sold 25 Jul 12 Put .76
    05/04/10 Sold 25 Jun 13 Call .80
    05/04/10 Sold 15 May 12 Put .43
    05/05/10 Bot 2500 WFR 12.60
    05/05/10 Sold 25 Jun 15 Call .31 corrected month
    05/05/10 Sold 25 May 11 Put .15
    05/05/10 Sold 25 Jul 10 Put .33
    05/06/10 Sold 30 Jun 13 Call avg .675
    05/06/10 Sold 15 Oct 9 Put .60
    05/06/10 Sold 15 Oct 9 Put .75
    05/06/10 Sold 15 May 11 Put .33
    05/07/10 Sold 15 Jul 14 Call .60
    05/07/10 Sold 15 Jul 10 Put .65
    05/07/10 Bot 1500 WFR 11.60
    05/10/10 Sold 25 May 11 Put .15
    05/13/10 Sold 25 Jun 11 Put .31
    05/14/10 Sold 25 May 11 Put .13
    05/14/10 Sold 25 Jun 12 Call .70
    05/14/10 Sold 10 Jul 10 Put .50
    05/14/10 Sold 25 Jul 13 Call .60
    05/18/10 Sold 25 Jun 12 Call .54
    05/25/10 Sold 50 Jul 13 Call .28
    05/25/10 Sold 25 Jun 9 Put .16
    06/07/10 Sold 25 Jul 12 Call .32
    06/08/10 Sold 50 Jun 12 Call .07
    06/08/10 Sold 25 Jun 9 Put .15
    06/08/10 Sold 25 Oct 6 Put .20
    06/08/10 Sold 10 Oct 13 Call .55
    06/15/10 Bot 1000 WFR 11.50
    06/15/10 Sold 25 Oct 13 Call .85
    06/15/10 Sold 15 Oct 9 Put .50
    06/24/10 Sold 25 WFR Aug 9 Put .39
    06/24/10 Sold 25 Aug 12 Call .45

    Closed trades Profit or loss

    05/07/10 Bot close 25 May 13 Call .29 1100
    05/10/10 Sold 1500 WFR 12.40 1200
    05/10/10 Bot close 25 WFR Jul 15 Call .23 200
    05/10/10 Bot Close 30 WFR Oct 9 Put .57 320
    05/10/10 Bot Close 40 WFR May 12 Put .44 (540)
    05/14/10 Bot Close 25 WFR Jun 13 Call .39 1025
    05/18/10 Bot Close 15 WFR Jul 14 Call .26 510
    05/18/10 Bot Close 30 WFR Jun 13 Call .27 1210
    05/20/10 Bot Close 25 WFR Jul 13 Call .52 200
    05/20/10 Bot Close 90 WFR May 11 Put .40 (2030)
    05/24/10 Bot Close 50 WFR Jun 12 Call .33 1450
    06/08/10 Bot Close 50 WFR Jul 13 Call .14 700
    06/14/10 Bot Close 50 WFR Jun 9 Put .01 725
    06/15/10 Bot Close 50 WFR Jun 12 Call .09 (100)
    06/15/10 Bot Close 25 WFR Jun 11 Put .13 450
    06/15/10 Bot Close 50 WFR Jul 10 Put .23 1150
    06/15/10 Bot Close 25 WFR Oct 6 Put .10 250

    Total return P/L on closed trades 7820

    Total position Cost / Premium received

    Long 6000 WFR avg 12.66 (75950)
    Short 25 Jul 12 Call 800
    Short 25 Jul 12 Put 1900
    Short 25 Aug 9 Put 975
    Short 25 Aug 12 Call 1125
    Short 15 Oct 9 Put 750
    Short 35 Oct 13 Call 2675

    Net position exposure

    Covered calls 6000 shares
    Naked Calls 2500 shares
    Naked Puts 6500 shares

    Stock closed at 10.66 so position bot now back to avg cost of 12.66 is underwater by 2.00/share. No further stock trades will be listed unless as a result of exercise or assignment or hedging. Not a great week for this stock dropping 1.10 in price.

    Good Trading

    dealmakr

  2. mounddweller said

    deamakr,

    I noticed you have several naked puts written with expiration dates 5 or 6 months out. Do you have any specific criteria you use to evaluate a trade before deciding to go out that far in time?

    Troy

    • dealmakr said

      Hi Troy,

      Bot close 25 Dell Jul 12 Put .27
      Bot Close 50 MAC Jul 45 Call .05
      Sold open 20 AKS Jul 12 Put .50

      A few position updates

      In writing NP’s I look at a potential entry point of where I would own the stock, premium paid and ROI. Sometimes in market gyrations you can come up with a good NP write a few months away as fear can make a hefty premium.

      BRCD, I like the stock and in writing Oct 6’s hope that it gives the company time to bring some earnings to the table and get near the strike before expiration, down side, I would own it at about 5.10.

      Look at CLF, yesterday stock drops about 6 points and premiums are rising on short term put protection. I wrote the Oct 25 puts a little while ago when stock last dropped under 50. I would rather be in a longer term position with a bigger downside protection than shorter term and higher volatility. The CLF Oct 25 put @.60 gives a nice % return over the timeframe and things have to get much,much worse before exercise becomes a problem, doesn’t mean it can’t happen, but will take the time factor in making the play.

      INTC is one where everything pretty much has to go to hell, before the stock hits 12.5, with earnings coming soon, would rather take a longer timeframe look.

      DELL is looking at problems with lawsuits and other stuff, but strong cash position maybe makes it a better buy at 10 or 7.5 than 12, so covered the Jul 12 puts at a small loss.

      Any trade can be put on depending upon market conditions and can be traded again and again. I also put on more NP’s closer to expiration looking for bingo.

      Best regards,

      dealmaker

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