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Archive for the ‘Weekly NP Strategy’ Category

Weekly NP Strategy – 050412 Expiration

Posted by mounddweller on April 26, 2012

Fellow Traders,

I’ve got 2 out of 81 possible trades for your consideration this week.  They are ANF and APC.  I’ve suggested ANF previously with mixed results.  I believe once it finished ITM but was an easy work out by selling the next month’s ATM covered call.  This week the $48 put looks good with 5.68% DSP and 0.79% ROIC.

I also like the looks of APC.  However, caution is advised with it because it announces 1st quarter earnings next week.  The $70 put has 6.11% DSP and 0.56% ROIC.

The other 79 trades meeting our screen criteria can be found here: http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/CoveredCalls-NakedPuts_OptionStrategies/files/.

Regards,

Troy

 

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Weekly NP Strategy – 04/27/2012 Expiration

Posted by mounddweller on April 19, 2012

Fellow Traders,

You can find the results of my Weekly NP Strategy screen here: http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/CoveredCalls-NakedPuts_OptionStrategies/files/.

This week there are 90 trades from which to choose.  I found 3 that I thought were interesting, APPL, AMZN, and WLT.  I tried something different this week.  As part of my due diligence I ran the trades through Ron Groenke’s “Show the Trade” screen.  For those unfamiliar with Ron’s VISIONS software it uses proprietary models and algorithms to identify winning trades.   I found AMZN and WLT this way.  APPL I like simply because I don’t think it will fall to $550 before next Friday (4/27).

Also, wanted to apologize for not posting much of late.  I’ve been very busy and it has been hard to keep up with the markets.

Regards,

Troy

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Weekly NP Strategy – 4/21 Expiration

Posted by mounddweller on April 12, 2012

Fellow Traders,

I’ve posted a spreadsheet out in the files section of the Yahoo group board with the selections for our Weekly NP Strategy.  You can find it here: http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/CoveredCalls-NakedPuts_OptionStrategies/files/.

The increased volatility and upcoming earnings season seems to have impacted the number of possible trades meeting our selection criteria.  This week there are well over 300 to choose from.  I’ve highlighted 3 or 4 trades that look interesting to me.

Regards,

Troy

 

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Weekly NP Strategy – MAR30 Expiration

Posted by mounddweller on March 22, 2012

Fellow Traders,

The Weekly NP Strategy has 42 possible trades this week.  As usual you can find them here on the Yahoo group board: http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/CoveredCalls-NakedPuts_OptionStrategies/files/.

Out of the 42 possibilities I found three that I liked.  First up is Mosaic Company (MOS).  The Mosaic Company engages in the production and marketing of concentrated phosphate- and potash-based crop nutrients for the agriculture industry worldwide.  MOS closed today at $56.27.  The strike price of the put we’re interested in is $52.50.   While this is somewhat higher than its 52-wk low of $44.86 I still like the trade.  Here’s why, looking at the one year chart it appears that MOS has support at $55.  It has bounced off of this level multiple times in both February and March.  The premium on the MAR30 $52.50 put is $0.27 giving a ROIC of 0.51% for the 8-day holding period.

The next two trades that interested me are in the same stock, Research in Motion (RIMM).  Research In Motion Limited (RIM) designs, manufactures, and markets wireless solutions for the worldwide mobile communications market.  I’m sure most of you are aware that RIMM has been taken to the cleaners by Apple and the iPhone.  As a matter of fact I just saw a headline today that iPhone sales had overtaken Blackberry in its home country of Canada.

So, why would I consider a trade in RIMM.  Well, primarily because both of the strike prices I’m interested in ($11 and $12) are below the lows encountered late last year when everyone was trying to get out of RIMM as fast as possible.   Back on December 20th RIMM closed at $12.52.  It retested those lows earlier this month closing at $12.90 on March 7th.

The $12 strike price has a premium of $0.25 indicating a potential ROIC of 2.08%.  The $11 strike price has a premium of $0.11.  Yield is an even 1.00%.

Both RIMM and MOS are debt free and trade at reasonable multiples to current and prospective earnings.  RIMM is especially cheap trading at < 4x current earnings and just over 4x prospective earnings.

That’s it for this week.  Best of luck trading in the coming weeks.  Be safe…it could be a bumpy ride for awhile.

Regards,

Troy

 

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Weekly NP Strategy – 0317 Expiration

Posted by mounddweller on March 8, 2012

Fellow Traders,

As most of you know this week isn’t a true weekly options week.  In reality it is just the last week before the normal monthly options expiration which occurs next Friday.  Thus, I don’t have any picks for you this week.  However, I did run the screen for you looking at all trades  with at least 5% DSP and 0.5% ROIC.    This screen returned 275 possible trades.

You’ll notice the number of possible trades is much higher than the 33 we found last week.  Again this is because our universe covers all stocks with options not just stocks which have weekly options.

I’ll post the file out on the Yahoo group board.  You can find it here: http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/CoveredCalls-NakedPuts_OptionStrategies/files/.

Regards,

Troy

 

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Weekly NP Strategy – MAR 9 Exp.

Posted by mounddweller on March 1, 2012

Fellow Traders,

My apologies, It’s been hit or miss the past few weeks with me posting the Weekly NP Strategy selections.  But, this week, I’m back with another round of trades for you to consider.

It was pretty slim pickin’s this week.  Only 33 trades met our 5% DSP and 0.5% ROIC selection criteria.  Of those only 2 caught my eye as good possibilities.

First up is Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF).  This isn’t the first time it has shown up on our Weekly NP Strategy screen.  This week its the $45 strike price we’re interested in.  The stock closed today at $47.33 and the $45 put has a bid premium of $0.33.  This gives us a 0.73% ROIC with 5.62% DSP.  ANF has a 52-wk low of $40.25 which it hit exactly one month ago.  Looking at the 1-yr chart you’ll see ANF has solid support at $45.  It bounced off this level several times over the past few months before finally succumbing to the repeated pressure in early February.

My second selection this week is a trade very similar to the one I made earlier this week.  It involves the ETN, VXX.  You may recall VXX tracks the performance of the volatility index VIX.  Earlier this week I placed a trade selling the regular MAR monthly expiration puts at the $22 strike.  The weeklies at the same strike also look like a good trade.  The MAR 9 $22 put has a bid premium of $0.22.  The ETN closed today at $24.14 giving us a 1.00% ROIC with 9.78% DSP.  While VXX has a 52-wk low of $19.88, it hasn’t closed below $23 in several months.

Well, there you have it.  Just two trades this week, but both I think are worthy of your time and further due diligence.

Regards,

Troy

PS.  Oops, almost forgot.  If you want to see the other 31 trades you can find them here:

http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/CoveredCalls-NakedPuts_OptionStrategies/files/

 

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Weekly Put Option Strategy – 02/24 Expiration

Posted by mounddweller on February 16, 2012

Fellow Traders,

This week 73 trades met our Weekly NP Strategy selection criteria.  A spreadsheet containing all 73 possible trades can be found here: http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/CoveredCalls-NakedPuts_OptionStrategies/files/.

Of the 73 possible trades I ran across two that I would be interested in looking into further.

(1) Alpha Natural Resources $19 strike price on stock that closed today at $20.90.  Premium is $0.23.  ANR reports quarterly earnings before the bell on expiration day, 2/24.  Seems to me all of the bad news may already be priced into this stock.  Thus, even with a poor earnings announcement it might not fall much further, or it could actually rise on bad news.

(2) Petroleo Brasil SA Petrobras (PBR).  As you know I just got out of a multi-month position in PBR.  So why would I want to reenter it?  Well, mainly because it has come down a little bit off its recent highs of around $32 despite oil going up.  Today it closed at $29.34.  The $28 put trades at $0.16.  I think PBR has some support at $28 so this might not too risky a trade.

Check out the 71 other trades.  Let me know if you see one you like.  There are several well-known large-caps on the list this week.  Most, if not all, report earnings in the coming week.

Regards,

Troy

 

 

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Weekly NP Strategy – FEB 10 Exp.

Posted by mounddweller on February 2, 2012

Fellow Traders,

I have posted the screener results for the Weekly NP Strategy here: http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/weeklyoptions/files/.  There were 65 trades meeting the selection criteria this week.  Unfortunately none of them appealed to me.  However, since we all have different objectives and risk tolerances they are there for you to check out.

I really stepped in it with my pick of ANF last week.  The company pre-announced an earnings short-fall today and the stock fell hard, dropping $6.73 to $40.40.  That is well below the $44 strike price which showed up in our screener results last week.

Folks who placed this trade now have 3 choices:

(1) BTC at a loss and walk away knowing you can’t win every trade, or

(2) Roll-out the puts to the regular MAR expiration or another month even further out.  Today, the FEB03 $44 puts closed at $3.60 and the MAR $44 puts were at $4.65.  This would give you about $1 net credit, about 2.25% for a month.

(3) Accept assignment and sell OTM calls at the $44 strike price.  The MAR $44 calls are at $0.88 bid.  The MAY $44 calls are at $2.13 bid.

I’m not very fond of #1.  ANF is a good company and will eventually recover.  I would select either #2 or #3.

Regards,

Troy

 

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Weekly NP Strategy – FEB 3 Expiration

Posted by mounddweller on January 26, 2012

Fellow Traders,

After a two-week hiatus I’m back with another round of weekly options.  Quite honestly I had lost some motivation to publish the list because it seemed to be producing the same results each week for several weeks in succession.

This week, however, the list has produced some names we have not seen previously or at least not in a while.  You can see this list here: http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/weeklyoptions/files/.

The list this week contains 73 possible trades.  Of these one stood “head and shoulders” in my mind above the rest.  That is ANF at the $44 strike price.  It is priced at $0.44 bid.  That gives you a 1% ROIC with 8 days to expiration.  ANF is a solid company.  However, investor sentiment has turned against it.  It is trading very near 52-wk lows.  The company has yet to announce its quarterly earnings.  This may be driving the high premium.  However, ANF isn’t scheduled to release its earnings until February 13 which is well after our expiration on February 3.

Check it out!

Regards,

Troy

 

 

 

 

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Weekly NP Strategy – 12/30/2011 Expiration

Posted by mounddweller on December 22, 2011

Fellow Traders,

The screener only returned 40 possible trades for the 12/30/2011 expiration period.  As usual I will post the list of possible trades out on the Yahoo Weekly Option Group board which you can access here: http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/weeklyoptions/files/.

Only 1 of the 40 possible trades was the least bit interesting to me.  That one trade is the YHOO put at the $15 strike price.  It has a bid price of $0.19.  This equates to a 1.27% ROIC with 8 days to expiration.  DSP is 7.44%.

YHOO has been bouncing between approximately $15 and $16 since August.  I feel YHOO is a decent trade right now because activists are once again pressuring the board of directors to take action to unlock value in the company.  The latest news is that YHOO is considering selling off their equity stakes in Yahoo Japan as well as internet properties in China.  Doing so could generate up to $14B for Yahoo which today has a total market cap. of $17B.  After subtracting out Yahoo’s substantial cash reserves this effectively values the US portion of the company at ZERO.  Clearly Yahoo is worth more than zero.  I believe this speculation about possible asset sales will act as a support to Yahoo’s stock price.

May you and yours have a very MERRY CHRISTMAS!

Regards,

Troy

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