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Archive for the ‘Weekly NP Strategy’ Category

Weekly NP Strategy – DEC 23 Expiration

Posted by mounddweller on December 16, 2011

Fellow Traders,

This week our selection criteria returned 94 possible trades.  Of these I found 3 that were worthy of further review and analysis.

(1) CF Industries (CF) $120 strike price with a bid of $0.60.  The stock closed Thursday at $130.16.

(2) Halliburtion (HAL) $28 strike price with a bid of $0.15.  The stock closed Thursday at $31.26.

(3) Walter E (WLT) $57.50 strike price with a bid of  $0.41.  The stock closed Thursday at $62.71.

My schedule precludes me from doing much more for you in the way of due diligence.  I will tell you all three of these selections are strong, dividend paying companies with some level of support at or above the selected strike prices.

You can find the complete list of selections out on the Yahoo Weekly Options group board.  The URL is:

http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/weeklyoptions/files/

Best of luck to everyone this week.  Merry Christmas!

Regards,

Troy

 

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Weekly NP Strategy – DEC 9 Exp. Results

Posted by mounddweller on December 11, 2011

Fellow Traders,

This will be short.  Please recall last week I recommended AA at the $9 strike.  Friday, AA closed at $9.64.  I also recommended CREE at both the $22 and $23 strike prices.  Friday, CREE closed at $23.79.

Thus, all three puts expired OTM and worthless.

Regards,

Troy

 

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Weekly NP Strategy

Posted by mounddweller on December 8, 2011

Fellow Traders,

I want to remind you of the decision I made last month to not publish a list of selections for the Weekly NP Strategy on the final week of the regular monthly expiration calendar.   This is because in reality there are no true weekly options.  The next available option expiration period is that of the normal monthly expiration which occurs on the Saturday following the 3rd Friday of the month.

However, I do have a trade for you to consider.  In scanning the list of options with one week to expiration on stocks with a dividend I came across the SYK DEC $45 with a bid price of $0.25.  Stryker (SYK) closed today at $47.12.  This gives the $45 put down side protection of 5.03%.  The ROIC for this trade with only 8 days to expiration is 0.56%.

The reason I like this trade is because Stryker is a solid, blue-chip company.  It operates as a worldwide medical technology company. The company operates in three segments: Reconstructive, MedSurg, and Neurotechnology and Spine. The Reconstructive segment offers orthopaedic reconstructive (hip and knee) and trauma implant systems, as well as other related products.  Stryker Corporation was founded in 1941 and is headquartered in Kalamazoo, Michigan.

Stryker has large operating margins and a rock solid balance sheet.  It also treats its shareholders very well.  Just yesterday it announced an 18% increase in the quarterly dividend to $0.2125.  You will be eligible to receive this new increased dividend if SYK declines to < $45 by next Friday and you have the stock put to you.   Shareholders of record as of 12/29 are eligible to receive the dividend.

As you can see in the 1 year chart below, technically SYK at $45 is a very good buy.

I encourage you to do your own due diligence and see if you too think this is a good trade.

Regards,

Troy

 

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Weekly NP Strategy – DEC 2 Exp Results

Posted by mounddweller on December 2, 2011

Fellow Traders,

This will be short and sweet.  My only recommendation last week was the CVX $87.50 put.  CVX closed today at $101.69.

Regards,

Troy

 

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Weekly NP Strategy – DEC 9 Exp

Posted by mounddweller on December 1, 2011

Fellow Traders,

This week our Weekly NP Strategy returned 87 possible trades.  Of these I found 3 worthy of your further consideration.  They are AA at the $9 strike and CREE at the $22 or $23 strike.  Those of you who would like to look through the entire list can find it here: http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/weeklyoptions/files/.

I don’t need to say much about the AA trade.  AA has consistently shown up in our selection results from day one of starting this strategy.  AA closed today at $9.81.  The $9 put has a bid price of $0.06 giving us a ROIC of 0.67% (before commissions).  In the past three months AA has bounced back twice when it got just below $9.  On October 3 it closed at $8.90 and on November 23 it closed at $8.88.  AA was one of my recommended trades that week and if you followed that recommendation you more than likely would have had AA put to you.  However, you could have easily sold it for a profit the following week.

Next up is CREE.  I like CREE at both the $22 and $23 strike prices.  CREE hit its 52-wk low of $23.03 back on October 3.  Since then it has rebounded, closing today at $24.83.  The ROIC (before commissions) is 0.55% and 1.13% at the $22 and $23 strikes respectively.  CREE has a rock-solid balance sheet.  It has $5.48/share in cash in the bank and ZERO debt.

Best of luck to everyone in their trades and happy holidays.

Regards,

Troy

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Weekly NP Strategy – DEC 2 Exp

Posted by mounddweller on November 25, 2011

Fellow Traders,

This week there are 92 possible trades which meet our Weekly NP Strategy selection criteria.  Only one seemed worthy of further attention.  It is a trade with Chevron, the multi-national integrated oil giant.

This trade gives us a ROIC of 0.58% with 5.74% of down-side protection.  It also lets us trade with a large cap, blue-chip.  The $87.50 strike price is below recent support of $90.

If you’re interested in seeing the other 91 possible trades you can find them here: http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/weeklyoptions/files/.

Have a great weekend.

Regards,

Troy

 

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Weekly NP Strategy – NOV 25 Exp Results

Posted by mounddweller on November 25, 2011

Fellow Traders,

Last week I recommended three trades for our Weekly NP Strategy.  I recommended trades in AA, MRVL, and SLW.  For the first time since I started this strategy one of my recommendations finished ITM.  While MRVL and SLW finished well OTM, AA did not.  I had recommended AA at the $9 strike price.  In the holiday shortened trading session today, AA closed at $8.95.

Happy Holidays to one and all.  I’ll be back later this weekend with new possible trades from both the Weekly NP Strategy and the Deep OTM NP Strategy.

Regards,

Troy

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Weekly NP Strategy – NOV 25 Expiration

Posted by mounddweller on November 17, 2011

Fellow Traders,

Our selection criteria this week produced a list of 117 possible trades.  Of these I found three that I like.

AA has appeared on our weekly list previously.  I like it at $9.  AA has a 52-wk hi/low range of $18.47 to $8.45.  While it went substantially lower during the 2008/9 financial crisis I think we’re not going to get back to those levels in the next week.

Next up is MRVL.  Today it announced that flooding in Thailand had hurt demand for its hard-drive controllers.  Consequently the stock sold off even harder than the overall market.  MRVL was down over 6% today.  Like AA, MRVL it trading much closer to its 52-wk low ($11.23) than it is its 52-wk high ($22.01).  MRVL has a rock solid balance sheet.  It has $3.96/share in cash and ZERO debt.  The $12 strike looks like a good NP trade.

Last we have Silver Wheaton (SLW).  SLW has appeared on our list many times.  It is rather volatile.  However, the $28 strike seems like a good bet to me.  The $28 strike is about 10% above its 52-wk low of $25.84.

I have posted the spreadsheet containing the entire list of possible trades out on the Weekly Options group board.  You can find it here: http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/weeklyoptions/files/.

Regards,

Troy

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Weekly NP Strategy – NOV 11 Exp. Results

Posted by mounddweller on November 12, 2011

Fellow Traders,

You’ll recall last week I highlighted 5 of the 142 trades which met our NP Strategy selection criteria.  Below are the ticker symbols, strike prices, and yesterday’s closing price for each of the 5 trades.

AA  $10.00  $10.60

CSCO $17.00  $19.02

FCX  $36.00  $39.86

HPQ  $25.00  $27.58

WMB  $29.00  $31.34

As you can see all 5 of the trades I selected finished OTM.  Thus far since I started sharing my Weekly NP Strategy selections I don’t think a single one of my highlighted trades has finished ITM.  Now if I could only feel as confident as my record suggests I should.  I find it very hard to enter these positions.  I always find something to use to talk myself out of making the trade.

I hope everyone has a great week.  I want to let everyone know I’ve decided not to run the Weekly NP Strategy on the week before option expiration each month.  There are no true weekly options this week.  They simply are the regular options which expire on Saturday.

Regards,

Troy

 

 

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Weekly NP Strategy – NOV 4 Exp.

Posted by mounddweller on November 4, 2011

Fellow Traders,

A quick post to update you on the one trade I recommended last week for our Weekly NP Strategy.  You’ll recall out of the 127 selections offered by our screening criteria only 1 was of interest to me.  That was the Newmont Mining (NEM) $60 put.  At the time of selection NEM was trading at $66.06 and the NOV4 $60 put was at $0.30 bid.

Today NEM closed at $69.38.  Thus our $60 put finished well OTM.  This trade gave us a gross (before commissions) ROIC of 0.5% with an 8 day holding period.  Annualized our ROIC is 22.81%.

I’ll be back later this weekend with a new round of possible trades from our other naked put trading strategy, the Deep OTM NP Strategy.  We’ll be looking at the regular monthly puts with a November 19 expiration.

Regards,

Troy

 

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