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Posts Tagged ‘AA’

Weekly NP Strategy – DEC 9 Exp. Results

Posted by mounddweller on December 11, 2011

Fellow Traders,

This will be short.  Please recall last week I recommended AA at the $9 strike.  Friday, AA closed at $9.64.  I also recommended CREE at both the $22 and $23 strike prices.  Friday, CREE closed at $23.79.

Thus, all three puts expired OTM and worthless.

Regards,

Troy

 

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Weekly NP Strategy – DEC 9 Exp

Posted by mounddweller on December 1, 2011

Fellow Traders,

This week our Weekly NP Strategy returned 87 possible trades.  Of these I found 3 worthy of your further consideration.  They are AA at the $9 strike and CREE at the $22 or $23 strike.  Those of you who would like to look through the entire list can find it here: http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/weeklyoptions/files/.

I don’t need to say much about the AA trade.  AA has consistently shown up in our selection results from day one of starting this strategy.  AA closed today at $9.81.  The $9 put has a bid price of $0.06 giving us a ROIC of 0.67% (before commissions).  In the past three months AA has bounced back twice when it got just below $9.  On October 3 it closed at $8.90 and on November 23 it closed at $8.88.  AA was one of my recommended trades that week and if you followed that recommendation you more than likely would have had AA put to you.  However, you could have easily sold it for a profit the following week.

Next up is CREE.  I like CREE at both the $22 and $23 strike prices.  CREE hit its 52-wk low of $23.03 back on October 3.  Since then it has rebounded, closing today at $24.83.  The ROIC (before commissions) is 0.55% and 1.13% at the $22 and $23 strikes respectively.  CREE has a rock-solid balance sheet.  It has $5.48/share in cash in the bank and ZERO debt.

Best of luck to everyone in their trades and happy holidays.

Regards,

Troy

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Weekly NP Strategy – NOV 25 Exp Results

Posted by mounddweller on November 25, 2011

Fellow Traders,

Last week I recommended three trades for our Weekly NP Strategy.  I recommended trades in AA, MRVL, and SLW.  For the first time since I started this strategy one of my recommendations finished ITM.  While MRVL and SLW finished well OTM, AA did not.  I had recommended AA at the $9 strike price.  In the holiday shortened trading session today, AA closed at $8.95.

Happy Holidays to one and all.  I’ll be back later this weekend with new possible trades from both the Weekly NP Strategy and the Deep OTM NP Strategy.

Regards,

Troy

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Weekly NP Strategy – NOV 25 Expiration

Posted by mounddweller on November 17, 2011

Fellow Traders,

Our selection criteria this week produced a list of 117 possible trades.  Of these I found three that I like.

AA has appeared on our weekly list previously.  I like it at $9.  AA has a 52-wk hi/low range of $18.47 to $8.45.  While it went substantially lower during the 2008/9 financial crisis I think we’re not going to get back to those levels in the next week.

Next up is MRVL.  Today it announced that flooding in Thailand had hurt demand for its hard-drive controllers.  Consequently the stock sold off even harder than the overall market.  MRVL was down over 6% today.  Like AA, MRVL it trading much closer to its 52-wk low ($11.23) than it is its 52-wk high ($22.01).  MRVL has a rock solid balance sheet.  It has $3.96/share in cash and ZERO debt.  The $12 strike looks like a good NP trade.

Last we have Silver Wheaton (SLW).  SLW has appeared on our list many times.  It is rather volatile.  However, the $28 strike seems like a good bet to me.  The $28 strike is about 10% above its 52-wk low of $25.84.

I have posted the spreadsheet containing the entire list of possible trades out on the Weekly Options group board.  You can find it here: http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/weeklyoptions/files/.

Regards,

Troy

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Weekly NP Strategy – NOV 11 Exp. Results

Posted by mounddweller on November 12, 2011

Fellow Traders,

You’ll recall last week I highlighted 5 of the 142 trades which met our NP Strategy selection criteria.  Below are the ticker symbols, strike prices, and yesterday’s closing price for each of the 5 trades.

AA  $10.00  $10.60

CSCO $17.00  $19.02

FCX  $36.00  $39.86

HPQ  $25.00  $27.58

WMB  $29.00  $31.34

As you can see all 5 of the trades I selected finished OTM.  Thus far since I started sharing my Weekly NP Strategy selections I don’t think a single one of my highlighted trades has finished ITM.  Now if I could only feel as confident as my record suggests I should.  I find it very hard to enter these positions.  I always find something to use to talk myself out of making the trade.

I hope everyone has a great week.  I want to let everyone know I’ve decided not to run the Weekly NP Strategy on the week before option expiration each month.  There are no true weekly options this week.  They simply are the regular options which expire on Saturday.

Regards,

Troy

 

 

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Weekly NP Strategy – Nov 11 Exp

Posted by mounddweller on November 3, 2011

Fellow Traders,

Below you’ll find my 5 choices from our list of 142 possible trades.  I will post the complete list out on the Yahoo Weekly Options group board.  You can link to it here: http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/weeklyoptions/files/.

Alcoa, Freeport McMoran, and Williams have already announced earnings.  Cisco announces earnings next week, thus that is why the premium on the $17 strike is so high.  Followers of CSCO know that its past several earnings releases have resulted in significant price drops.  However, I think this time CSCO may have positive news to report.  I have nothing substantive to base my opinion on, just a gut feel.  Take it for what its worth.

Hewlett Packard doesn’t report earnings until November 21st.  I think it will trend upward until then.  The stock has been so beaten down that even if is put to you at $25.00 you would be buying it very near its recent lows.

Well, that’s all I’ve got time for this week.  Best of luck to everyone.

Regards,

Troy

 

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Weekly NP Strategy – OCT 28 Results

Posted by mounddweller on October 28, 2011

Fellow Traders,

Last week I chose 3 trades from our Weekly NP Strategy selections.  You’ll recall my 3 chosen trades involved AA, HPQ, and SLW.  Let’s take a look and see how the trades turned out.

First up is Alcoa (AA).  When I selected AA it was trading at $9.95 and the OCT28 $9 put was trading at $0.05 bid.  Today, AA closed well OTM at $11.57.  Before commissions the ROIC for the 8 day holding period was 0.56%.  Annualized that comes out to 25.35%.

Next up is Hewlett Packard (HPQ).  You’ll recall HPQ has had a difficult time of late.  Shoddy management with poor decision making and a volatile market had driven it down to levels not seen in quite some time.  Because of this I felt comfortable selecting it as a potential trade.  When I selected HPQ it was trading at $24.74 and the OCT28 $23 put was trading at $0.21 bid.  HPQ closed today at $27.95.  Our 8 day ROIC was 0.91%.  Annualized this return is an outstanding 41.66%.

Last, we have Silver Wheaton (SLW).  SLW has been on a roller coster ride as well as it closely tracks the price of silver.  When I selected this trade SLW had closed at $29.09 and the OCT28 $25 put was at $0.15 bid.  Today SLW closed at $35.97.  The 8 day ROIC was 0.6%.  Annualized this comes out to a very respectable 27.38%.

Clearly, if one can consistently find trades like these a Weekly NP Strategy can generate a significant return.

Well, that’s it for today.  I’ll be back later this weekend with the Deep OTM NP Strategy NOV Week 3 selections.

Regards,

Troy

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Weekly NP Strategy – OCT 28 Exp

Posted by mounddweller on October 20, 2011

Fellow Traders,

I have three picks for you this week from our Weekly NP Strategy.  None have looming earning releases.  Here are my three choices this week:

First up is Alcoa (AA).  AA has already announced 3rd quarter earnings.  It has declined steadily since hitting a 52-wk high back in April.  It seems to have found a bottom, closing at $8.90 back on October 3rd.  Will it retest this low before expiration next week?  Who knows?  However, I think it is a fair bet.

Next up is Hewlett-Packard (HPQ).  It doesn’t announce earnings until November 21st.  HPQ as you’re probably aware has had a terrible year.  Since late February it has fallen from the high $40s to a low of $22.20 back on October 3rd.  HPQ closed today at $24.74.  We can sell the $23 strike for $0.21.  Almost 1% for one week of exposure on a stock that is already down 50% this year seems like a reasonable bet to me.

Last up is Silver Wheaton (SLW).  SLW doesn’t report earnings until early November.  It closed today at $29.73.  It has not closed below the selected $25 strike price since November 15th of last year.

Well, that’s it for this week.  I’ll be back this weekend to look at our monthly Deep OTM Strategy results and also look at our November selections.

Regards,

Troy

 

 

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Weekly NP Strategy – SEP17 Exp Results

Posted by mounddweller on September 17, 2011

Fellow Traders,

Well our second week of selecting weekly NP trades has concluded.  Let’s take a look at how my choices faired.   You’ll recall my choices were:

(1) The $30 strike of Agilent (A) closed OTM yesterday at $36.36

(2) The $11 strike of Alcoa (AA) closed OTM yesterday at $11.97

(3) The $23 strike of Adobe (ADBE) closed OTM yesterday at $25.52

(4) The $30 strike of Sotheby’s (BID) closed OTM yesterday at $38.22

(5) The $77.50 strike of Catepillar (CAT) closed OTM yesterday at $85.90

(6) The $80 strike of Cummins Engines (CMI) closed OTM yesterday at $97.84

(7) The $22 strike of Encana (ECA) closed OTM yesterday at $23.85

(8) The $19 strike of Intel (INTC) closed OTM yesterday at $21.97

(9) The $25 strike of Microsoft (MSFT) closed OTM yesterday at $27.12

(10) The $40 strike of Pall (PLL) closed OTM yesterday at $44.03

(11) The $50 strike of Transocean (RIG) closed OTM yesterday at $59.17

(12) The $11 strike of Charles Schwab (SCHW) closed OTM yesterday at $12.34

(13) The $29 strike of Waste Management (WM) closed OTM yesterday at $32.01.

Hey, how about that!  13 for 13.  Two weeks running we haven’t had a single selection finish ITM.  We’re off to a awesome start testing the possibilities of this Weekly NP Strategy. However, two weeks does not make for statistically valid testing.

Regards,

Troy

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Potential September Trades

Posted by mounddweller on August 23, 2009

I’m having a real hard time this month finding anything spectacular.  I can talk
myself out of most anything that looks remotely interesting.  Here’s what I’ve
considered thus far (in order of preference):

(1) FLIR – Stock closed Friday at $23.08.  BL is $23.95.  Stock is trading in
the middle of the V and hasn’t ran up a great gob from its 52-wk low of $18.81. 
Looking at doing an ITM buy/write on the SEP $22.5 calls with a net debit of
$21.90.  That would give me an ROIC of around 2.6%.  Not great, but given the
low volatility of late, I’ll take it.

(2) SYK – Stock closed Friday at $41.76, over the BL of $40.36.  Stock is well
off its 52-wk low of $30.82 but is still solidly in the V.  This is a first
class company.  However, for trading purposes I would like it alot more if it
were less than $40.  I’m considering opening a small position by buying at the
market and selling the ATM $42 calls for $1.00.  This would give me an ROIC of
2.97%.  Again, not great, but I’m not willing to trade the riskier stocks in
this market just for higher yield.

(3) BLUD – Stock closed Friday at $18.46 well above the BL of $16.88.  I would
like this one alot more if it had options available in $1 increments.  The SEP
$20 calls are too far OTM to have any premium and the ITM SEP $17.5 calls don’t
yield much either.  If I decide to do a trade in BLUD I suspect I’ll write the
ITM SEP $17.5 calls which at current prices would give me an ROIC of 2.11%.

(4) TK – Stock has run back up to $18.90.  I’m considering selling the SEP $17.5
NPs for $0.40.  That has an ROIC of 2.29%.  More than likely though I’ll hold
off doing this trade and see if I can get a better price on a down day. 
Ideally, I’d rather be selling the SEP $15 NPs.

(5) AA – Sell NPs on the SEP $11 puts for $0.22 or better.  Stock is well
extended above it’s 52-wk low but is still in the V.  However, it is above the
BL.  The PF for the SEP $11 puts is OK at 1.6.  Stock has negative net cash.   (Many thanks to Rich for posting his comments and for pointing out AA to me).

I also looked at re-selling NPs on IPI and O but didn’t like the risk/reward
ratios at any strike price. 

Regards,
Troy

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