The Money Tree

Safely Generating Income in Retirement

Posts Tagged ‘POT’

Results – August 2013

Posted by mounddweller on August 30, 2013

Fellow Traders,

Can you believe it’s already Labor Day weekend?  Where has this year gone?  All of the big boys on Wall Street will be back from the summer homes in the Hampton’s next week.  It should be interesting to see how we finish out the year.

Well, let’s take a look at how The Money Tree made out this month.

Number of Closed Positions: 6

Profit on Closed Trades: $1,040.15

Total Capital Used on Closed Trades: $43,133.73

Average Number of Days Trades Were Open: 21.2

Return on Invested Capital: 2.41%

Let’s dig a little deeper into these 6 closed trades.  Four of the six closed trades involved naked puts.  One was a covered call and the sixth one involved the purchase of calls; something I’d never done before.  The four naked put trades all expired OTM.  I had puts expire in EXC, LNCO, MSFT, and POT.  I sold the EXC AUG $30 puts at $0.40 when Exelon was at $30.55.  The puts expired OTM with EXC closing at $30.16.  LNCO was at $29.63 when I sold the AUG $27 puts for $0.60.  At expiration LNCO closed at $27.63.  My trade in MSFT also turned out well, I sold the AUG $30 puts at $0.39 when MSFT was at $31.06.  They expired OTM with Microsoft trading at $31.80.  My final NP trade involved Potash (POT).  With POT trading around $29.08 I sold the AUG $27 puts at $0.32.  Potash, at expiration, closed at 30.39.

Before we move on to my open trades let’s look at my two trades involving calls.  First up is my covered call trade in SUNE (previously WFR).  Long time readers know I’ve been in this position for quite some time.  Recently it has become more volatile and I’ve been able to take advantage and sell some calls to reduce my overall net cost.  This month I sold the AUG $10 calls at $0.68 when the stock was at $9.95.  I ended up buying back the calls for $0.02 after SUNE announced horrible quarterly results which drove the stock price down to $7.20.   After the stock recovered I sold another round of calls at the $9 strike.  More about this trade next month.

Last, but certainly not least, I want to briefly describe the purchase of my first call trade.  I entered this trade after reading about the strategy developed by my friend Teddie at www.fullyinformed.com.   It involves the purchase of calls when the $VIX drops below a pre-defined level.  I bought 5 OCT $13 calls on the $VIX at $4.30.  Later, when the $VIX was still languishing I bought another round of calls.  This time I bought 2 OCT $13 calls at $3.10.  This brought my average cost down to $3.98.  Earlier this week I sold the calls for $4.40.  My ROIC on this trade was over 10%.  However, I could have done even better if I had spread out my purchases into smaller lots at lower prices.  Also, as it turns out I exited the trade too early.  Today, the $VIX OCT $13 calls closed at $5.00 bid / $5.30 ask.  I’m not complaining though.  I made over 10% in 34 days.  When the conditions are right I will do this trade again.

Now let’s look at my open trades.

Number of Open Positions: 10 (in 9 stocks)

Net Cash Flow in August from 8 new Open Positions: $1,279.40

Total Capital Used on Open Trades: $76,152.78

Net Cash Flow on Invested Capital: 1.68%

I have previously opened positions in GDX, OKE, and SUNE.  My new open positions are in ABT (SEP $34 puts), CAT (SEP $80 puts), CCJ (SEP $19 Puts), EXC (SEP $30 puts), KO (SEP $39 CC), LNCO (SEP $24 puts), SUNE (SEP $9 CC), and TEVA (SEP $37.50 puts).

Going into September I am considering naked put trades in IBM, INTC, MCD, and POT.

Regards,

Troy

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Results – July 2013

Posted by mounddweller on July 31, 2013

Fellow Traders,

July is history.  Wow, 2013 is going quickly.  July turned out to be a good month.  Let’s check those results.

Number of Closed Positions: 7

Profit on Closed Trades: $1,272.00

Total Capital Used on Closed Trades: $71,350.00

Average Number of Days Trades Were Open: 24.6

Return on Invested Capital: 1.78%

Let’s dig a little deeper into these 7 closed trades.  All 7 of the closed trades involved naked puts.  Six of the seven expired OTM.  The other one was my ‘day-trade’ in POT which I wrote about yesterday.  I had puts expire in CHRW, CAT, KO, TEVA, and two positions in LNCO.  I sold the CHRW JUL $55 puts at $1.10 when CHRW was at $55.97 (it has strong support at $55).  The puts expired OTM with CHRW closing at $60.60.  CAT was at $83.86 when I sold the JUL $80 puts for $1.00.  At expiration CAT closed at $85.65.  My first time trading KO also turned out well, I sold the JUL $38 puts at $0.40 when KO was at $39.54.  They expired OTM with KO trading at $41.09.  Last up are my two trades in LNCO.  With LNCO trading around $30.70 I sold the JUL $27.50 and JUL $25 puts at $1.05 and $0.55 respectively.  It was a wild ride.  LNCO dropped to an intra-day low of $23.03 on July 5 before recovering to close on expiration at 32.18.

Now let’s look at my open trades.

Number of Open Positions: 7 (in 5 stocks)

Net Cash Flow in July from Open Positions: $(110.45)

Total Capital Used on Open Trades: $65,662.93

Net Cash Flow on Invested Capital: (0.168%)

Currently I have open positions in EXC, GDX, OKE, MSFT, and SUNE (WFR).   Let’s look at each one starting with EXC.  I just can’t seem to find the right rhythm with EXC.  If I weren’t wanting to re-establish a long-term position in this company I would have given up long ago and moved onto trading something else.  Long time readers will recall that I had a position in EXC that got called away in 2012.  Since then I have been trying to build a new position.  In May I started by selling the JUN $34 puts.  As EXC continued to move up more I feared having it run away from me so I lost my patience and bought 200 shares at $35.55 only to see it begin to fall almost immediately.  I ended up having to roll the JUN $34 puts out and down to JAN $33 for a small credit.  Then in June I sold more puts at the $32 strike.  As these went ITM I rolled them down and out as well to the JUL $31 puts.  When the JUL $31 puts went ITM I decided to cut my losses and bought to close them for a small debit.  Again, my patience cost me.  EXC bounced and closed at JUL expiration above $31.  Had I been more patient they would have expired OTM.  Finally, to finish the EXC saga for this month, today I sold some AUG $30 puts at $0.40 in an effort to reduce the debit I created when I closed the JUL $31 puts too early.  All of this activity has put me at just about at break-even.  The only one getting rich on this trade is my broker.

Let’s move onto my remaining open trades.  I won’t bore you with any more details on GDX.  It continues to hover between $26-$28.  I am way under water on this trade.  Next up is OKE.  Like, EXC I’m having trouble figuring this one out.  This is another company I’m trying to establish a long-term position in.  Back in May I sold JUN puts at the $47.50 strike.  Shortly thereafter the bottom fell out on the stock and I ended up rolling my position down and out to the JAN $45 puts for a $0.30 net credit.  Then in June I sold another round of JUL puts at the $42.50 strike.  When OKE fell below $42.50 I decided to close that position and began looking to sell something else further out and down for a credit.  Alas, like with EXC, had I just been patient the JUL $42.50 would have expired OTM.

OK, not all of my open positions are basket cases.  I actually have two open positions that are performing well.  I am short MSFT AUG $30 puts.  I opened the trade on July 19 selling the AUG $30 puts for $0.39 while MSFT was at $31.06.  I have no reason to believe these won’t expire OTM.

My last open position is in SUNE (WFR).  You’ll recall last month that I mentioned that I had sold the JUL $10 calls at $0.25.  These ended up expiring OTM so I wrote another round of calls for August also at the $10 strike.  I was able to sell these for $0.68.  SUNE has been on both sides of $10 this week so time will tell if I’ll get called away at expiration or be able to write another round of calls.

 

Going into August I am considering another round of naked put trades TEVA, CAT, CHRW, and CCJ.  All are once again approaching key support levels.

Regards,

Troy

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New Trade – POT

Posted by mounddweller on July 30, 2013

Fellow Traders,

 

My trade today in POT was a first for Troy’s Money Tree.  Why is that, you ask?  Well, because I ended up mimicking a day-trader.  By that I mean that I was in and out of the trade in just a few short hours.

 

I have been keeping an eye on POT for the past several days.  As a matter of fact I had actually tried to place a trade in it yesterday but thankfully never got filled.  Specifically, I had placed an order to STO AUG $36 puts at $0.51 when it was down around its lows of the day.

This morning before the market opened I noticed the news about Russia’s Uralkali Group, the world’s largest fertilizer producer, pulling out of a cartel and vowing to ramp up production.  I then checked pre-market prices for all of the major fertilizer producers.  As expected all, including POT, were going to open significantly lower.

After the market opened I looked at various expiration months.  The market was moving so fast there were no options available for AUG expiration at POT’s opening price.  I then decided to look at the JAN14 expiration.  By keeping an eye on the fast stochastics and the William’s R technical indicators I was able time my entry at close to the daily low for POT.  With POT trading at $29.15 I sold the JAN14 $28 puts for $2.58.

My plan upon entering the trade was to watch for the subsequent bounce and close the trade when I could buy back the puts at $1.29 or better (50% of the entry price).  I had anticipated this could take a month or two to achieve.

I checked in on POT’s price periodically throughout the day (unfortunately, I still have a day job).  I wanted to be ready to bail out quickly if I had mistimed my entry and the stock continued to fall.  After a late lunch I noticed that POT was back over $30 and moving steadily higher.  I started paying closer attention to it and shortly after 2 pm CT I decided it might make sense to alter my original trading plan.  With the JAN $28 put trading at just under $2.00 I realized I could buy to close my position and achieve a 2% ROIC in about 5 hours of elapsed time.

I continued to closely watch the trade.  Like in the morning when I opened the trade I was watching the fast stochastics and William’s R to time my exit.  When the stock began to pull away from the upper Bollinger Band that’s when I made my move.  With POT trading at $31.65 I bought to close my JAN14 $28 puts at $1.71.

My ROIC on this trade, net of commissions, was 2.95%!  The unrealistic annualized return is an astronomical 1075%.

My plan now is to continue to watch POT and the other fertilizer manufacturers like MOS, IPI, and AGU to see if I can detect a floor in the pricing.  At that point I’ll look to sell another round of puts for either the AUG or SEP expiration depending on how many days remain to expiration.

I’ll be back later this week with a summary of my July results.  It’s been a good month.

Regards,

Troy

 

 

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April 2013 Results

Posted by mounddweller on April 30, 2013

Fellow Traders,

You’ll recall earlier this year I started a new series of posts summarizing my monthly trading results.   Today being the last trading day of the month let’s take a look and see how I did.

Number of Closed Positions: 4

Profit on Closed Trades: $447.50

Total Capital Used on Closed Trades: $46,600.00

Average Number of Days Trades Were Open: 27

Return on Invested Capital: 0.96%

OK, before I move on to the stats for my open trades, let me tell you a little more about these closed trades.  All 4 closed trades were naked puts.   Half expired OTM and half I bought back before expiration at a profit.  I had CSCO puts at the $20 strike and POT puts at the $37 strike expire OTM.  ITW and KSS I bought back early, both for $0.05.

Now let’s look at my open trades.

Number of Open Positions: 6

Net Cash Flow in April from Open Positions: $355.05

Total Capital Used on Open Trades: $71,050

Net Cash Flow on Invested Capital: 0.50%

The return on invested capital for my open positions is much lower than normal because I did a poor job of managing them.  I waited too long to roll out my GDX position.  This resulted in having 300 shares put to me at $40.  Because of this I was not able to generate any cash flow by rolling out my NPs.  Neither was I reasonably able to sell covered calls on my new long position unless I wanted to sell them far, far out in time or way ITM.  I also did a poor job of rolling out my open positions in CAT and NUE.  While I was able to roll-out for net credits in both cases, they were small net credits.   My other open positions are as follows:  CSCO MAY $19, TEVA MAY $37.50, and CCJ MAY $19.

I am cautiously optimistic heading into May.  Best of luck to all my readers!

Regards,

Troy

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Monthly Results – March 2013

Posted by mounddweller on March 29, 2013

Fellow Traders,

You’ll recall a couple months ago I started a new series of posts summarizing my monthly trading results.   The last trading day of the month being behind us let’s take a look and see how I did.

Number of Closed Positions: 5

Profit on Closed Trades: $1,041.80

Total Capital Used on Closed Trades: $69,790.00

Average Number of Days Trades Were Open: 30

Return on Invested Capital: 1.49%

OK, before I move on to the stats for my open trades, let me tell you a little more about these closed trades.  Of the 5 closed trades, 3 were naked puts and 2 were covered calls.  2 of the 3 naked puts trades (CAT and INTC) expired OTM.  The third, EXC I bought to close after 25 days (out of a total of 36 DTE) when I had captured 75% of the total premium.  One of the two covered call trades (COH) started out as what one of my friend and  investing mentors, Ron Groenke calls the “Double Up” strategy.  This is where you do a covered call and sell naked puts on the same stock with the same expiration date.  The other covered call trade (GLW) was a straight buy/write.  All 5 trades were closed for a profit.

Now let’s look at my open trades.

Number of Open Positions: 5

Net Cash Flow in March from Open Positions: $440.15

Total Capital Used on Open Trades: $76.050.00

Net Cash Flow on Invested Capital: 0.58%

The return on invested capital for my open positions is lower than normal this month because 2 of my 5 positions were initiated in prior months and did not generate any new income.  One of the two (POT) was initiated in late February and the other is GDX which I have been trying to profitably work myself out of for a few months now.  The return on invested capital for new open positions is a more normal 1.09%.

Best of luck to all my readers as we head into April.

Regards,

Troy

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New Trade – POT

Posted by mounddweller on February 28, 2013

Fellow Traders,

I slipped in one more trade this month.  Today, I sold 3 APR POT $37 puts at $0.47.  After commissions I netted $131.25 from this trade.  This trade came to me by way of my participation on the Yahoo Covered Calls Naked Puts Option Strategies board.  We have a lively discussion.  For further information on how you can join our group see the link on the left side bar.

Let’s look at what I and others saw that convinced us to get in this trade.  First, let’s look at the 3-month chart for POT.

BLOG - POT 3 MTH Chart

As you can see POT, after hitting the upper BB at around $44 on January 28th began to head south.  On February 20th it hit the lower BB and began to drop rapidly.  On Monday, February 25th it bottomed out and the following day carved out a small gain.  Then on Tuesday it had a big gain and pulled away from the lower BB.  This was the signal that it was time to consider a naked put trade.  Thus, this morning while the stock was hitting its lows of the day I pulled the trigger and sold the APR $37 puts.

Here’s the intra-day chart for today.

BLOG - POT Intraday Chart

If you look closely you’ll see a little blue dot on the chart when POT was around $39.65 at 11:05 ET.  This is when I executed my trade.  You’ll notice POT had hit what was to be its low of the day just a few minutes prior to 11:00.  I watched it bounce off these lows and then retrace and try to retest them.  It didn’t make it before turning back up.  That’s when I decided it was time to jump in.  My timing was good (for once).  I was only one penny away from capturing the highest premium of the day for the APR $37 puts.  The stock took off from there and closed at over $40/share.

Regards,

Troy

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